AD Marco 09vs
Guimaraes B
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AD Marco 09 0-0 Guimaraes B, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Marco 09 1-0 Guimaraes B
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.2% | 37.0% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.3% | 31.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.5% | 31.5% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Projected Score
AD Marco 09 0–0 Guimaraes B
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.5%
Model confidence
37.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AD Marco 09DWLWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Guimaraes BDDWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AD Marco 09Guimaraes B
33.3Attack37.5
83.3Defence65.6
66.7Form47.9
64.8Power52.6
0.95xG0.78