AD Ceuta FCvs
Valladolid
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/20/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Ceuta FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Valladolid
Original prediction
AD Ceuta FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 32.5% | 38.8% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.0% | 28.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.5% | 32.6% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
AD Ceuta FC
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
AD Ceuta FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40