AD Ceuta FCvs
Sabadell
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/10/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sabadell · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AD Ceuta FC 0-1 Sabadell, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Sabadell
Original prediction
Sabadell
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 30.1% | 23.8% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.1% | 28.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 40.8% | 47.9% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Projected Score
AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sabadell
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Sabadell
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Sabadell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AD Ceuta FCDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SabadellDDWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AD Ceuta FCSabadell
29.2Attack33.3
25.0Defence75.0
20.8Form54.2
28.3Power56.6
0.56xG1.47