AD Ceuta FCvs
Real Sociedad II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Ceuta FC 3-1 Real Sociedad II
Original prediction
Real Sociedad II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 37.5% | 27.0% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.5% | 26.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 46.1% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad II
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Real Sociedad II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00