AD Ceuta FCvs
Oviedo
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oviedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AD Ceuta FC 0-1 Oviedo, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Oviedo
Original prediction
Oviedo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 30.9% | 18.3% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.6% | 23.5% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 40.5% | 58.2% | 17.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.7 pts
Projected Score
AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Oviedo
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Oviedo
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Oviedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AD Ceuta FCLDWDL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
OviedoWLWLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AD Ceuta FCOviedo
29.6Attack40.7
25.9Defence66.7
18.5Form51.9
27.9Power53.8
0.64xG1.74