AD Ceuta FCvs
Celta de Vigo II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Ceuta FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Ceuta FC 0-2 Celta de Vigo II
Original prediction
AD Ceuta FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.9% | 40.6% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.3% | 28.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.9% | 30.9% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
AD Ceuta FC
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
AD Ceuta FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00