Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Saturday, 1 August 202612:30Updated today
Accrington ST

Accrington ST

Home
W
vs
12:30
Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Sheffield Wednesday33%
Accrington ST33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score0-0
Win probability
Accrington ST
33%
Draw
33%
Sheffield Wednesday
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Accrington ST
34
Sheffield Wednesday
9
Defence
Accrington ST
91
Sheffield Wednesday
91
Momentum
Accrington ST
100
Sheffield Wednesday
33
Danger (xG)
Accrington ST
0.90
Sheffield Wednesday
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.84 xG for Accrington ST and 0.43 xG for Sheffield Wednesday. Sheffield Wednesday's projected xG of 0.43 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 0 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Accrington ST's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.27 — moderate attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 0 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Accrington ST's Defensive Stability (91) and Sheffield Wednesday's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Accrington ST)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Sheffield Wednesday)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Accrington ST)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Sheffield Wednesday)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Accrington STAccrington ST
W
Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday
D

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
Accrington ST33%
Draw33%
Sheffield Wednesday33%

Sheffield Wednesday leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw

Accrington ST host Sheffield Wednesday in Friendlies Clubs. Accrington ST have recorded DLDWWW in recent matches while Sheffield Wednesday arrive with a run of LLWLDW. These sides have met 4 times recently, averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Why GoalVio backs this

The xG model projects 1.84 for Accrington ST and 0.43 for Sheffield Wednesday. The gap of 1.41 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.

Biggest risk: null have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Accrington ST have been conceding 1.59 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Accrington ST

Accrington ST

W
vs Bradford
17 Jul 2026
10
Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday

D
@ Hallam
14 Jul 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-0.

Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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