GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/7/2025, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Accrington ST · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Accrington ST are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Port Vale are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Accrington ST hold a 15.8-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Accrington ST holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Accrington ST

Probability

49.4%

Model confidence

49.4%

Accrington ST has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Accrington STLLWWL

GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Port ValeDWLWW

GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Accrington STPort Vale
60.0Attack25.0
46.7Defence58.3
60.0Form33.3
57.7Power41.9
1.91xG1.24
View match centre →