GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/21/2023, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Accrington ST · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Accrington ST are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Accrington ST hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Accrington ST holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Accrington ST

Probability

47.3%

Model confidence

47.3%

Accrington ST has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Accrington STWLLWW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Nottingham Forest U21WL

GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.50/1.00

BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
Accrington STNottingham Forest U21
60.0Attack41.7
46.7Defence50.0
60.0Form50.0
57.7Power49.1
1.98xG1.42
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