Accrington STvs
Nottingham Forest U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 11/21/2023, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Accrington ST · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Accrington ST are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Nottingham Forest U21 are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Accrington ST hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (57.7 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Accrington ST holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Accrington ST
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Accrington ST has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 1.50/1.00