Friendlies Clubs
Accrington ST
Home
Bury
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 1.51 xG for Accrington ST and 1.07 xG for Bury — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.44), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.58 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesAccrington STProbability breakdown
Bury leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Accrington ST vs Bury: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw
Accrington ST take on Bury in Friendlies Clubs.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 1.51 for Accrington ST and 1.07 for Bury. The gap of 0.44 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: null have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.
Risk factors
- ⚠These sides have drawn 3 of their last 8 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Recent form
Accrington ST
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Accrington ST vs Bury?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Accrington ST vs Bury?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Bury?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Accrington ST vs Bury?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.