Acatlanvs
Real Apodaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Apodaca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Acatlan 4-1 Real Apodaca
Original prediction
Real Apodaca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.48 | 9.5% | 33.3% | 23.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.20 | 17.4% | 24.7% | 7.4 pts |
| Away | 1.24 | 73.1% | 42.0% | -31.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Real Apodaca
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Real Apodaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80