Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Acassuso 0-0 San Telmo, with an exact score probability of 31%.
Prediction record
Final result
Acassuso 1-2 San Telmo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.6% | 34.3% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 31.2% | 35.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.1% | 29.9% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Projected Score
Acassuso 0–0 San Telmo
Exact score probability: 31%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AcassusoLDLDD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
San TelmoDLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AcassusoSan Telmo
24.0Attack26.7
60.0Defence61.3
29.3Form32.0
40.0Power42.2
0.60xG0.60