Acambarovs
Dragones de Oaxaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Acambaro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Acambaro 1-1 Dragones de Oaxaca
Original prediction
Acambaro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.1% | 39.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 27.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.5% | 33.2% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Acambaro
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Acambaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80