Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Acambaro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Acambaro 5-2 Ciervos
Original prediction
Acambaro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 88.2% | 73.9% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 10.92 | 8.5% | 14.9% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 28.00 | 3.3% | 11.2% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Acambaro
Probability
73.9%
Model confidence
73.9%
Acambaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AcambaroLLWDW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CiervosLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
AcambaroCiervos
88.9Attack16.7
55.6Defence5.6
55.6Form5.6
62.2Power14.4
3.35xG0.78