Academicavs
Lusitânia Lourosa
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 8/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Academica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Academica 0-2 Lusitânia Lourosa
Original prediction
Academica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.9% | 45.6% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 31.2% | 28.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.9% | 26.0% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Academica
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Academica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60