Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Academica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Academica 4-0 Leixoes
Original prediction
Academica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 32.1% | 37.2% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.7% | 27.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 39.1% | 35.2% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Academica
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Academica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AcademicaWWWLL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LeixoesLLWDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AcademicaLeixoes
47.6Attack42.9
52.4Defence61.9
57.1Form47.6
53.1Power52.3
1.22xG1.10