Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Academica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Academica 3-2 Amarante
Original prediction
Academica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.3% | 42.0% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 26.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.6% | 31.2% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Academica
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Academica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AcademicaWWLLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AmaranteLWDLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AcademicaAmarante
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power88.7
1.78xG1.48