Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AC Oulu 1-2 Gnistan
Original prediction
Gnistan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.4% | 35.2% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 31.3% | 37.5% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AC OuluLDWLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GnistanDDWWD
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
AC OuluGnistan
36.2Attack53.6
62.3Defence56.5
49.3Form53.6
51.0Power55.2
1.00xG1.12