Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
AC Milan are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Rennes are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Rennes hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 61.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while AC Milan holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80