Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AC Milan 0-2 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.7% | 34.2% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.9% | 24.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.5% | 41.8% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AC MilanDDWWW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BenficaWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
AC MilanBenfica
72.2Attack100.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form72.2
57.2Power76.0
1.51xG1.95