Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
AC Milan are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while AS Roma are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60