Aberystwyth Townvs
llanelli AFC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/31/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberystwyth Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aberystwyth Town 4-0 llanelli AFC
Original prediction
Aberystwyth Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 68.3% | 67.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.90 | 18.4% | 17.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 6.84 | 13.2% | 15.2% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Aberystwyth Town
Probability
67.1%
Model confidence
67.1%
Aberystwyth Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80