Aberystwyth Townvs
Caerau (Ely)
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberystwyth Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aberystwyth Town 0-1 Caerau (Ely)
Original prediction
Aberystwyth Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.3% | 60.4% | 18.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.7% | 19.0% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.1% | 20.7% | -11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Aberystwyth Town
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
60.4%
Aberystwyth Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20