Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberdeen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aberdeen 0-0 ST Mirren, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aberdeen 3-1 ST Mirren
Original prediction
Aberdeen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.8% | 47.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.6% | 27.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 23.6% | 25.3% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Projected Score
Aberdeen 0–0 ST Mirren
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Aberdeen
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Aberdeen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AberdeenLWDWD
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ST MirrenLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
AberdeenST Mirren
29.2Attack33.3
62.5Defence41.7
33.3Form41.7
42.3Power41.1
1.18xG0.79