Aberdeenvs
ST Johnstone
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberdeen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aberdeen 0-1 ST Johnstone
Original prediction
Aberdeen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 43.1% | 38.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.2% | 29.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.7% | 31.7% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Aberdeen
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Aberdeen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20