Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberdeen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aberdeen 0-1 Rangers
Original prediction
Aberdeen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 24.1% | 36.7% | 12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.3% | 27.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 50.6% | 36.1% | -14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Aberdeen
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Aberdeen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AberdeenWLWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
RangersLWWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AberdeenRangers
33.3Attack33.3
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form16.7
47.8Power36.5
1.47xG1.14