Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ABB 0-1 Aurora
Original prediction
Aurora
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.1% | 29.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.8% | 25.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.1% | 45.0% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ABBWLLLW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ABBAurora
50.0Attack58.3
41.7Defence75.0
25.0Form83.3
39.1Power75.3
1.23xG1.80