Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AB · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AB 1-1 B68
Original prediction
AB
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.8% | 58.1% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.1% | 21.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.2% | 20.7% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
AB
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
AB has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ABLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
B68DLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ABB68
46.0Attack33.3
41.3Defence33.3
36.5Form25.4
42.9Power33.0
2.06xG1.06