Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Viborg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarhus 2-1 Viborg
Original prediction
Viborg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.2% | 26.7% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.1% | 25.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.7% | 47.9% | 14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Viborg
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Viborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AarhusDDLWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ViborgLWLWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AarhusViborg
45.5Attack54.5
45.5Defence69.7
27.3Form60.6
41.1Power61.9
0.83xG1.76