Aarhusvs
Sonderjyske
COMPLETEDDenmark · Superliga · 10/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarhus 3-0 Sonderjyske
Original prediction
Aarhus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.6% | 49.1% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.6% | 23.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.22 | 17.8% | 27.3% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Aarhus
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Aarhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AarhusWDWLD
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SonderjyskeWLDLW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AarhusSonderjyske
40.7Attack44.4
37.0Defence22.2
18.5Form18.5
35.2Power31.1
2.04xG1.52