Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarhus 2-2 Silkeborg
Original prediction
Aarhus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 62.3% | 46.3% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 20.5% | 25.2% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 5.42 | 17.2% | 28.6% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Aarhus
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Aarhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AarhusLLLDL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SilkeborgDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AarhusSilkeborg
38.9Attack27.8
38.9Defence50.0
16.7Form27.8
34.6Power38.3
1.37xG1.16