UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 21 July 2026Last updated 14:56
Aarhus

Aarhus

Home
W
14
Full time
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

Away
W
Cepheus Park Randers
GoalVio prediction
49% confidence
Aarhus(49%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Aarhus
49%
Draw
24%
Lech Poznan
27%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Aarhus
73
Lech Poznan
94
Defence
Aarhus
91
Lech Poznan
66
Momentum
Aarhus
100
Lech Poznan
100
Danger (xG)
Aarhus
1.80
Lech Poznan
2.70
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Aarhus)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Lech Poznan)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Aarhus)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Lech Poznan)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
AarhusAarhus
WD
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
W

Probability breakdown

49% confidence
Aarhus49%
Draw24%
Lech Poznan27%

Aarhus leads with 49% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Aarhus head into this in UEFA Champions League fixture at Cepheus Park Randers in mixed form (W), while Lech Poznan arrive in mixed form (W). Aarhus have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Lech Poznan over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Aarhus (91/100) and Lech Poznan (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Aarhus have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Lech Poznan have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Aarhus have generated 1.27 xG per game recently while conceding 1.76 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Aarhus and Lech Poznan in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Aarhus to win with 49% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Aarhus 4923%, Draw 2356%, Lech Poznan 2721%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Aarhus

Aarhus

W
vs AC Horsens
15 Jul 2026
20
D
vs FC Midtjylland
26 Apr 2026
00
xG 1.3
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

W
@ Radomiak Radom
16 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

GoalVio's model predicts Aarhus to win with 49% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more