Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarhus 1-3 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.35 | 14.7% | 22.6% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 19.6% | 24.1% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 65.7% | 53.3% | -12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AarhusDLLLW
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
BenficaWWDDW
GF 19 · GA 5 · avg 3.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AarhusBenfica
33.3Attack100.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
15.3Power73.4
1.07xG2.11