Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aarhus are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Benfica are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 3.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 69.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
12.3%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 19 · GA 5 · avg 3.80/1.00