Aarhus Fremadvs
Esbjerg
COMPLETEDDenmark · 1. Division · 10/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus Fremad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarhus Fremad 0-0 Esbjerg
Original prediction
Aarhus Fremad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 41.3% | 48.6% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.7% | 25.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.0% | 25.5% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Aarhus Fremad
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Aarhus Fremad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80