Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarau W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aarau W are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Thun W are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Aarau W holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarau W
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Aarau W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20