Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarau W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aarau W are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 4.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Aarau W holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarau W
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Aarau W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 2 · GA 23 · avg 0.40/4.60