Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarau W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aarau W are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 4.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Aarau W holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aarau W
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Aarau W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 12 · avg 0.00/2.40
GF 5 · GA 21 · avg 1.00/4.20