Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aarau W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Basel W are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.5% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20