Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sitra · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
A'Ali 0-2 Sitra
Original prediction
Sitra
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.3% | 33.5% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.7% | 29.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.0% | 36.7% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Sitra
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Sitra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
A'AliLWLDL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SitraLDDWW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
A'AliSitra
33.3Attack25.0
50.0Defence83.3
33.3Form41.7
41.9Power50.2
1.02xG1.05