Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manama · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
A'Ali 1-1 Manama
Original prediction
Manama
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.2% | 30.3% | -16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 26.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.0% | 43.0% | 17.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Manama
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Manama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
A'AliLWWLL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
ManamaLWWDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
A'AliManama
34.7Attack42.4
46.7Defence60.6
33.3Form50.0
40.5Power52.4
0.85xG1.29