Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
A'Ali · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
A'Ali 1-0 Malkiya
Original prediction
A'Ali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.3% | 40.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.1% | 28.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.7% | 31.1% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
A'Ali
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
A'Ali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
A'AliLDLWW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MalkiyaLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
A'AliMalkiya
33.3Attack0.0
33.3Defence33.3
16.7Form0.0
31.3Power16.3
1.55xG1.18