Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aalesund 2-0 Start
Original prediction
Aalesund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 43.4% | 53.0% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.7% | 19.9% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 31.8% | 27.1% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Aalesund
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Aalesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AalesundLDDLD
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
StartWLLWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AalesundStart
51.9Attack37.0
20.4Defence27.8
27.8Form24.1
36.0Power32.0
2.45xG1.61