Aalesundvs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalesund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aalesund 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Original prediction
Aalesund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.0% | 36.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.0% | 27.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.0% | 36.3% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Aalesund
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Aalesund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20