EliteserienEliteserien
Saturday, 11 July 2026Last updated 10:01
Aalesund

Aalesund

Home
LD
22
Full time
Molde

Molde

Away
L
Color Line Stadion
GoalVio prediction
49% confidence
Aalesund(49%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Aalesund
49%
Draw
26%
Molde
24%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Aalesund
54
Molde
34
Defence
Aalesund
1
Molde
27
Momentum
Aalesund
17
Molde
0
Danger (xG)
Aalesund
0.69
Molde
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Aalesund)
0.69
avg per match
xG for (Molde)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Aalesund)
3.66
avg per match
xG against (Molde)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
AalesundAalesund
LDW
MoldeMolde
DLLW

Probability breakdown

49% confidence
Aalesund49%
Draw26%
Molde24%

Aalesund leads with 49% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Aalesund head into this in Eliteserien fixture at Color Line Stadion in mixed form (LD), while Molde arrive in mixed form (L). Aalesund have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Molde over 1 games.

The model rates Aalesund's attack at 54/100 against a 27/100 Molde defence, and Molde's attack at 34/100 against a 1/100 Aalesund backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Aalesund have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Molde have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

Aalesund have generated 0.47 xG per game recently while conceding 1.92 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Molde have generated 1.92 xG per game recently while conceding 0.47 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Aalesund to win with 49% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Aalesund 4949%, Draw 2620%, Molde 2431%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Aalesund 0Draws 10 Molde
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
11 Jul 2026
Aalesund
D22
Molde
xG 0.51.9

Recent form

Aalesund

Aalesund

L
@ Valerenga
16 Jul 2026
16
D
vs Molde
11 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.5
W
@ Rosenborg
16 May 2026
32
Molde

Molde

D
@ Aalesund
11 Jul 2026
22
xG 1.9
L
@ Rosenborg
5 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Bodo/Glimt
28 Jun 2026
14
W
vs Kristiansund BK
16 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Aalesund vs Molde?

GoalVio's model predicts Aalesund to win with 49% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Aalesund vs Molde?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Molde?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aalesund vs Molde?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more