Aalesund IIvs
Spjelkavik
COMPLETEDNorway · 3. Division - Girone 2 · 9/14/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spjelkavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-3 (7%), 2-4 (6%), 3-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aalesund II 3-2 Spjelkavik
Original prediction
Spjelkavik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 28.9% | 28.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.8% | 17.3% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.4% | 54.5% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–37%
- 2.2–46%
- 3.3–36%
Predicted outcome
Spjelkavik
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Spjelkavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 13 · GA 13 · avg 2.60/2.60