Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalborg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aalborg 0-0 HB Koge
Original prediction
Aalborg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.0% | 55.1% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.5% | 23.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.73 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Aalborg
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Aalborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AalborgLLLDW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HB KogeDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AalborgHB Koge
33.3Attack20.0
53.3Defence20.0
46.7Form6.7
47.3Power20.7
1.87xG0.92