A. ItalianovsVasco DA Gama

A. Italiano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Vasco DA Gama are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Vasco DA Gama hold a 13.6-point power-rating edge (45.1 v 58.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Vasco DA Gama holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.