A. Italianovs
Santos
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/25/2023, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
A. Italiano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Santos are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santos hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (45.1 v 63.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40