GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/21/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

A. Italiano are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nublense are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Nublense hold a 13.7-point power-rating edge (45.1 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

37.8%

Model confidence

37.8%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

A. ItalianoLDLLD

GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
NublenseDDLLD

GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
A. ItalianoNublense
38.1Attack33.3
52.4Defence75.0
38.1Form58.3
45.1Power58.8
0.90xG1.06
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