3 de Noviembrevs
Independiente F.b.c.
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
3 de Noviembre 5-2 Independiente F.b.c.
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 31.7% | 24.7% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.6% | 26.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.7% | 48.3% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60